## How much should gas cost?

A ship was hijacked, “Sirius Star with its full cargo of two million barrels of oil” from here

That got me thinking, how much gas is in each barrel of oil. Turns out a barrel is 42 US gallons and about 19.5 gallons of gas can be made from one barrel. [source ]

The Price of Oil today is about \$54, which means the gas component of that is
(19.5/42)*54 = \$25.07  or  \$25.07/19.5 = \$1.26 / gallon raw price

I found this Gas Price Breakdown
14%    Dist and marketing
15%    Refining Costs and Profits
27%    Taxes
44%    Crude Oil

So, at today’s oil prices, gas should be,
\$1.26/ 44% = \$2.92    Expected Gas Price

This news story implies that crude oil is 54% of price,
\$1.26/ 54% = \$2.32    Expected Gas Price

So at today’s prices (\$1.85), gas is a real bargain that cannot last unless crude drops to about a dollar a gallon or \$42.  So will gas go up or will oil go down? I’d bet on oil going down.

More here and here

[UPDATE] Using EIA data for gas and oil going back to 1990, the median cost component of oil on a gallen of gas is 46%. Charting the variance from median shows that the price relationship holds but has alot of noise (yellow line). If the variance is below 100, gas is cheaper than it should be, if its above, it’s more expensive than it should be historically.

Click for bigger image.

## pizdaus Python Script

pizdaus.com is a cool site with some great photography. But it’s now polluted with too many ads.

This script skips all of that and downloads just the pictures. Relies heavily on Beautiful Soup, which is truly the work of a genius. It only downloads the pictures you would see if you visited the first page, so it does not overload the webserver. Requires Python of course.

Put this on a timer to run a couple of times a day, then combine this with Johns background switcher in windows and you have an endless set of backgrounds. (warning: some, but not many, of the pix are risque)

## Keyless lock box problem

I’m getting a cold, so I took some medicine last night and was wired up all night . All I did was think about this math problem…..
Since I went to my friends house the other day and used his outside keylock thing it has been bothering me.

I have an electronic door entry on the garage. It has 4 digits which yields 10,000 combinations. You have to press * after the combo so that’s 5 key presses. If each key press takes 1 second, it would take
less than  ((10 000 * 5) / 60) / 60 = 13.88 hours to brute force it. And it may have some kind of tamper lockout.

lockbox

My friends lock, on the other hand, is mechanical and has the limitation that a number can be pressed only once, and it can be in  any order. So it has way less than 10000 combinations. But, you don’t have to use 4 digits.

So how long would it take to crack his lock, and how many digits are best? Continue reading Keyless lock box problem